The re-election of Donald Trump has the potential to reshape the US wine industry dramatically. Central to the disruption is his proposed tariffs on imported goods, including wine, which he has repeatedly touted as a strategy to protect and promote American production. What many do not realize is that tariffs on wine will affect numerous US businesses—importers and distributors, large and small—which will have ripple effects on the US restaurant industry.  

If reintroduced, these tariffs could reach 10–20% on European wines and even higher for goods from China, creating a seismic shift in pricing, availability, and operations for the wine trade. For sommeliers, wine directors, and the on-premise trade, these changes may bring a wave of challenges requiring swift adaptation and creative solutions. We surveyed recent expert news reports regarding this issue and then formulated specific advice for US sommeliers and wine directors. 

Tariffs and Their Ripple Effects

The US wine industry is no stranger to tariff shocks. In 2019, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on a wide range of European goods as part of the Airbus-Boeing trade dispute. While the tariffs were temporarily lifted in 2021, their impact was severe, particularly for small importers and restaurants reliant on European wines. Many industry professionals worry that a return to similar policies could reignite these struggles on an even greater scale. 

Wine tariffs operate like a tax passed along the supply chain. Importers pay the tariff upfront, often raising prices to distributors, who then adjust their own margins. Restaurants and retailers at the end of this chain face difficult choices: absorb the costs, pass them on to consumers, or reduce their offerings. For wine lists built on diversity and global representation, this poses a fundamental challenge. 

Rising Costs Across the Board

The most immediate impact of tariffs would be a sharp increase in the cost of imported wines. European wines, which dominate restaurant lists and account for over 30% of US wine consumption, are particularly vulnerable. A 20% tariff on a $15 wholesale bottle from France, for instance, would push its price to nearly $18 before distribution, transportation, and markups. By the time it reaches a wine list, that bottle may cost diners $75 instead of $60.

As an article by on-premise expert Peter Green in Quartz notes: “The tariffs come at a particularly poor time for the American wine industry. Wine consumption had been increasing in the U.S. until recently, peaking at 3.16 gallons per person in 2021. But by 2023, per capita consumption had dropped 15% to 2.68 gallons, according to data from the U.S. Wine Institute.” 

Domestic wines, though unaffected by the tariffs directly, are unlikely to remain stable in price. Historically, when tariffs reduce the availability of imports, domestic producers capitalize on the opportunity by raising their prices. For diners seeking value or variety, this convergence of rising costs limits options on both ends of the spectrum. 

Speaking to Eric Asimov of the New York Times, Grant Reynolds, owner of Parcelle wine bars in New York, explains: “Tariffs on imports don’t just make European wines more expensive. They create a cascading effect where even domestic producers adjust their pricing in response to demand shifts. For restaurants and bars, it’s a lose-lose scenario.” 

Loss of Wine List Diversity 

One of the great strengths of the modern US wine landscape is its diversity. Sommeliers and wine directors have access to an unparalleled range of wines from around the world, allowing them to curate lists that reflect their clientele’s evolving tastes and interests. Tariffs threaten to undermine this diversity, particularly for small producers. 

Mary Taylor, an importer specializing in artisanal European wines, warns that tariffs disproportionately affect smaller estates when speaking to Asimov. “Large producers have the margins and resources to weather tariffs. Small family wineries do not,” she says. These are often the unique, high-quality wines that sommeliers prize for their individuality and ability to enhance guest experiences. Without them, wine lists may become homogenized, dominated by mass-market labels that can absorb additional costs. 

Financial Strain on Restaurants

Restaurants, already battered by inflation, labor shortages, and post-pandemic recovery challenges, may find tariffs to be the final straw for profitability. The restaurant business runs on thin margins, and wine sales are a crucial revenue driver. Rising costs, coupled with decreased consumer spending during economic uncertainty, could force many establishments to make painful cuts. 

Sommeliers and wine directors may face shrinking budgets for wine programs. Elaborate wine pairings or extensive by-the-glass offerings—hallmarks of fine dining—could become less viable. Restaurants may opt for simpler, more cost-effective wine programs, potentially limiting opportunities for sommeliers to showcase their expertise and creativity.

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Challenges for Sommeliers and Wine Directors

1) Reimagining Pairings and Educating Consumers 

For sommeliers, tariffs will necessitate a rethinking of pairings and wine lists. A wine director accustomed to offering a Côte de Beaune Chardonnay with a classic roast chicken may need to pivot to a domestic or lesser-known alternative, such as a high-quality Chardonnay from Oregon or even a Grasevina from Croatia. These changes require not only sourcing expertise but also consumer education. 

“Guests often come in with preconceived expectations about what they want,” Rainia Zayyat, wine director at Bufalina in Austin told the Times. “When the wines they’re used to are no longer affordable or available, we have to help them discover new options that still enhance their dining experience.” 

2) Pressure on Profit Margins

Wine directors will also face heightened scrutiny over their programs’ profitability. Many restaurants rely on wine sales to subsidize other areas, such as food and labor costs. When tariffs erode wine profits, directors may be forced to prioritize financial metrics over innovation or diversity. This tension could stifle creativity in an industry that thrives on offering diners something unexpected and memorable. 

3) Career Development Risks

The downstream effects of tariffs could also affect career opportunities for sommeliers. As restaurants scale back ambitious wine programs, the demand for highly trained wine professionals may shrink. For aspiring sommeliers, this means fewer openings for mentorship or advancement, potentially slowing the growth of a once-thriving profession. 

Expert Strategies for Adapting Efficiently and Successfully

While the challenges are significant, experts suggest strategies that sommeliers, wine directors, and restaurant owners can adopt to navigate the uncertainty. 

1) Prioritize Domestic and Emerging Regions

Focusing on domestic wines, especially those from underrepresented regions, can provide a viable alternative to pricier imports. Regions such as Texas, Virginia, and New York’s Finger Lakes are producing wines of increasing quality. Similarly, exploring emerging international regions unaffected by tariffs—such as South America, Eastern Europe, or even parts of Africa—can add value and intrigue to wine lists. 

2) Strengthen Supplier Relationships

Open communication with importers and distributors will be critical. Wine directors should work closely with their suppliers to identify cost-effective options and negotiate better pricing. Collaborations with distributors may also yield access to lesser-known wines with strong value propositions. 

3) Streamline Wine Programs

Simplifying wine lists without sacrificing quality can help balance costs. By focusing on smaller, tightly curated lists, sommeliers can minimize inventory costs while maintaining a strong brand identity. For example, offering a rotating selection of wines by the glass from different regions could reduce the risk of holding stock while keeping the list dynamic. Relying on award-winning, on-premise-friendly wines chosen by sommeliers at competitions such as the Sommeliers Choice Awards will aid in this process. 

4) Leverage Consumer Engagement

Educating diners about the impact of tariffs and the value of alternative wines can foster goodwill and understanding. Sommeliers can use storytelling to highlight the craftsmanship of small producers or the unique characteristics of lesser-known wines. Creative promotions, such as themed flights or tasting events, can further enhance the guest experience. 

5) Advocate for Industry Unity

Industry organizations such as the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance and WineAmerica are already lobbying against tariffs. Sommeliers and wine professionals can lend their voices to these efforts, emphasizing the economic and cultural importance of preserving access to global wines. 

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Looking Ahead: A Test of Resilience for the On-premise Trade

The re-election of Donald Trump and the possible reintroduction of tariffs pose a formidable challenge for the US wine industry, particularly the on-premise trade. From rising costs and shrinking wine lists to increased pressure on profitability, the potential impacts are wide-ranging and profound. However, as the industry learned during the 2019 tariff crisis, resilience and adaptability are its strengths. 

By embracing innovation, prioritizing education, and advocating for change, sommeliers, wine directors, and restaurateurs can navigate these turbulent times. As Mary Taylor aptly puts it, “Wine has always been about connection—between people, places, and cultures. No tariff can erase that.”

Header image source: Business Insider

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